20k N1s? We ain’t seen nothin’ yet

Estimates of the premiere week of sales for Google’s Nexus One aren’t all that strong. In fact, they sit right around 20,000. Compared to the estimated first week sales of Motorola’s Droid, 20k sounds downright shabby. That’s not exactly the bombshell many were expecting this week, and certainly not an indication that Google has burst out of the gates with their collective sites set on the golden ring.

However, the N1 has only launched on the nations 4th carrier…and not even really there. Google’s decision to sell direct may very well hurt them at the offset (seems to be the case so far) but don’t expect their approach to stifle sales for too much longer. With the phone set to launch on Verizon in the States and on Vodafone in Europe this Spring, and considering Google’s astronomical advertizing leverage, I really do think this could be the phone to rival all others. (cont.)

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In fact, I think a quick warm-up on Magenta may be exactly what Android needs to really explode into the mainstream consciousness once the Nexus One lands on Verizon. By then, people will be quite familiar with the phone, having seen it in blogs, on the news, in papers, via countless ads in whatever media Google has its tentacles in, etc. I’m not going to say that this is the year of Android, or of the Nexus One, or anything like that. What I will say is that I expect fewer and fewer people will be asking me what Android is, and that more and more will ask me how to do this-or-that on their new Nexus One.

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One good reason is because it's cheaper.

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One good reason is because it's cheaper.

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One good reason is because it's cheaper.

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I think well see this sales model change soon once google get some data, why would you buy an unlocked phone when it is locked in to one carriers via the 3G frequencies.

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The N1 isn't coming to TMo directly.....but as you said, it will go to Big V, and there it might do well. But then again, it does mean Google's contradicting itself. As for not seeing anymore 528 Mhz devices ? What do you call the Moto BackFlip ?The new round of devices have to set the bar that much higher for people to get interested. Palm finally got their act together with the PDK, and we're going to start seeing games galore for that thing coming out. One there's a GSM version of the Pre, it's safe that it'll be around for a while. As for Google, you may have a point, it may have been a ploy to push the hardware manufacturers to "get on with it". But, I think that's a long speculative shot at best. Google IS what people think when they think Android. None of the other partners have ( at least by looking at the source tree ) anywhere NEAR the intellectual property back into Android like Google has. So if, as a platform, anybody wants to ensure it's success, it's going to HAVE to be Google who steps up into the ring with the iPhone.

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I don't think Google wanted the N1 to be a monster hit. I think they wanted a sleek device with awesome specs so that other companies would push their Android handsets further. I think that's a great idea since I doubt we'll be seeing a 528 MHz processor in any Android phone ever again (I hope not at least).This also opens the door to Google selling other devices. Why would you want to sell directly through Google if they had this beast of a handset that was selling like hotcakes? How could you compete with The Google Phone? As of now I think another handset with comparable specs and a qwerty keyboard would fair well in the Google phone store.I do think once the N1 comes to Big Red, it'll sell much better. I was very excited for the N1, but once it was officially announced, I was a bit underwhelmed since it wasn't as revolutionary as I had hoped. Now though, with all the reviews coming out, I can see buy the N1 unsubsidized and keeping it for a very long time (more specifically, until my contract runs out).

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John,I normally agree with your comments about how the market goes. But in this case, I couldn't disagree with you more. Let's break it down...1. It doesn't matter what carrier Google went with. I'm sure that Big V, AT&T, and even Sprint had this release discussed with them. It was 4 months ago that we had first spy photos of this phone ( Dragon, Passion, ..Qumquat..whatever.). The point is it's not the network that kept this disaster of a launch from crashing and burning. C'mon you know that. This isn't a moment to shy away from calling things like that are. Don't be afraid to nip at the proverbial hand that feeds you.2. The fact that N1 launched "not really there" is PRECISELY at the heart of the matter, it was Googles to either massively score, or how is you younger crowd call it...FAIL ! But I digress, because at the point where the rumors started to get all "warm and fuzzy". You know that time. When folks started to say about Google Voice by VOIP'd out, that there's be some sort of WiFi enabled call features. Right about that point, it started to get a little too "good to be true". So I place any and all success or failure in that respect, on Google's doorstep. However, that does not necessarily absolve TMo.3. TMobile being a good little phone carrier didn't put up much of a fight ( and why should they, I understand of course ) to offer a better plan for newcomers. And for that matter, put up NO provisions for treating their loyal customers with any more concern than some "johnny come lately" new subscriber.That all being said, please John, don't be an apologist for Google, it's beneath you. "Warm up on magenta" ? What, are you kidding me ? You mean with the media blitz put on by Big V over the Droid that people haven't figured out there's an alternative to the iPhone ? You're kidding, right ? The consciousness of America ( nay, the world ) at the alternative offered by Android aren't going to be because of a handset itself, it'll be because of the marketing. Which, in the case of the N1, Google utterly failed at getting the ground swell going. You want a marketing blitz that'll set people's souls on fire ? I'll give you a blitz that'll do that. "30 days of Android". 1. Anyone. And I mean, ANYONE, can buy an N1 for $179. Heck, make it $199, the $20 isn't going to kill anyone, let's be honest.2. You get 30 days to try out the serivce, at which point you can keep it, or return it. No harm, no foul. 3. Service Plan - $59.99/unlimited minutes - $29.99/3G data. Come one, come all. The catch: ( there always is one ). If you cancel earlier than the 2 years, there is a $400 termination fee, split 75/25 between Google and the carrier. The carrier simply offered the service, and took no part in the subsidization, therefore their cut is smaller. Google gets to recoup some of it's investment, because after all, it was trying build marketshare. Everyone comes out "mostly" winning. Now, of course there are many details missing, but that, that, would've been a launch not easy to top.

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Well considering the Droid has commercials on tv every 10 minutes and billboards etc, I've only seen Google advertise online. I did buy one but most of my friends don't even know the phone exist. They haven't marketed it barley at all.

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Will the N1 go to Sprint?

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