Why Has Flash Storage In Mobile Devices Plateaued?

I still remember when the first iPhone came out. The base model came with a paltry 4GB of flash storage, which wasn’t enough for two movies off of 4GB DVDs. Of course, flash storage was more expensive back then. Even iPods were short on flash storage. But a year later, the iPhone 3G came out and heroically doubled the flash storage available to 8GB in the base model. And another year later, the 3GS upped it to 16GB. I was in awe of this trend of doubling the memory of devices, as I couldn’t fit all my music on my 8GB iPhone 3G. Then the iPhone 4 came out, along with its Android counterparts (like the Galaxy S). All of them had 16GB of memory or less. I thought it was strange that the amount of memory in phones hadn’t raised again, but understood that 32GB was a lot to ask for. Maybe next year.

And next year came, with a 16GB iPhone 4S, a 16GB Galaxy S II, and many other phones (some even coming with less than 16GB). The first phones the US is seeing with a base of 32GB of storage are the Samsung Galaxy Nexus (from carriers, anyway. The unlocked version has 16GB) and the HTC One X, and that may very well be due to the fact that neither have microSD card slots. Even the unreleased Galaxy SIII will start at 16GB.

And this trend continues with other devices too. All flash-based iPods have very little memory, unless you pay BIG money for a 64GB iPod Touch.

There have been no major breakthroughs for flash memory lately. It hasn’t gotten cheaper, more spacious, or smaller in physical size. Considering cameras are shooting in 1080p, screens are being made 720p for viewing HD content, and more of people’s lives are becoming digital, it should be very important for flash memory to grow with the rest of the technology in phones. Just like battery technology, flash memory technology is letting people down. The best Galaxy SIII on launch day will be only 32GB, and that means I’ll be able to fit maybe 4 movies onto it, if I’m lucky. That’s if I forego photos and music completely.

There is the alternative of streaming, but it’s nowhere near perfect. Even over a good wifi connection, streaming movies isn’t nearly as good quality as a local copy. And when you’re out on a mobile network, even LTE isn’t consistent enough to properly stream media all the time. While mobile carriers throttle us and take ages to built better networks, we need more memory in our devices.

This goes double for tablets. You buy an entertainment device with a massive battery good for watching at least 5 movies straight, yet you can’t even fit 5 movies onto it. You take a tablet on vacation, but it can’t replace your computer because on your 14 hour flight to Germany, your tablet ran out of content halfway there.

The strange thing is, a 32GB MicroSD is only $20 on Amazon. In a $749 phone, they couldn’t throw in a 32GB internal chip? It should be even cheaper for a manufacturer, considering they’re buying in bulk and they’re buying just the raw memory chip instead of the entire card. You could even get a 64GB MicroSD for about $80, yet the price premium of most devices going from 16GB to 64GB is $200.

I don’t see this ending anytime soon. Eventually, manufacturers will move onto 32GB as the standard. And hitting 64GB will possibly take another few years. And I see absolutely no logical reason for this. What do you guys think? Do you remember the good old days where flash storage doubled every year? Are you upset that it has peaked? Or do you have a reason for this? Tell us in the comments!

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JanisVaivars 15 pts

I don't see why I would need 64Gb on my phone when it will die after watching one or two movies anyway... It would be cool, I want it, yes, but I think we should be talking about batteries and how bad they are and how slowly their technology has recently progressed.

alynsparkes 6 pts

November 2009: Nokia's N900 released with 32GB of internal storage plus a micro SD slot. Seems it's been possible for a lot longer than some people think. I guess it's one of those specs that's moved to "as little as we can get away with." So long as the processor's a quad core and the screen's the size of a car windscreen, people don't seem to care about the other stuff.

Haloruler64 84 pts

 alynsparkes That's a cool fact. But that N900 never really got popular. Thanks though, very interesting. And yeah, it's just become the unnecessary spec.

GaryDownes 6 pts

"the best Galaxy III on launch day will be 32gb, and that means i will be able to fit 4 movies on to it, if im going".... WTF? My Iconia A500 has 16GB internal and 16GB on SD.... this allows me to watch around 10-20 HD movies (depending on compression and decoding etc) so this guy is clearly talking out his... well, you know what! Perhaps he needs to learn how to convert files and compress them lol

Haloruler64 84 pts

 GaryDownes "depending on compression and decoding" most people just use whatever HD video file they're given, and that's quite large. If ripping straight from Blu-Ray it can be MASSIVE. Not everyone knows how to recode/convert videos.

GaryDownes 6 pts

 Haloruler64 I totally agree with you, however its really not that a difficult process. You only need to Google it, and there are many tutorials, both video and step-by-step on how to compress files etc. If you're that lazy or technologically inept, then perhaps you should have a smartphone or a tablet in the first place. I know individuals that are perfectly capable of learning new processes and technology, but choose not to because then expect everyone else to do it for them. Perhaps instead of this guy "moaning" that he can "only get 4 films, if i'm lucky" he should do what I did, and that's educate myself so that I can enjoy up to 30 HD films on my 32GB tablet.... 

jarrod78910 5 pts

So my rebuttal to aelfwyne is that according to this website( http://www.theregister.co.uk/2012/02/21/nand_bleak_future/ ) flash memory has a diminishing returns type of design. It quotes a study saying "While flash density in terms of bits/mm2 and feature size scaling continues to increase rapidly, all other figures of merit for flash – performance, program/erase endurance, energy efficiency, and data retention time – decline steeply as density rises." So as flash gets more capacity it fails more often, much more often, it goes on to say that if you increase latency time by 4x  you would reduce lifetime by 10X-20X while also shrinking the density of the memory. It also goes onto talk about how we are to a point where it is more economical and easier to use disk drives than flash for storage above what we currently have because of the size and reliability issues involved.

 

Also a MAJOR POINT is that the flash in your phone is not the same as the flash in a thumb drive or a SD card etc. it is integrated on the "system on a chip" (SOC) where it is much much smaller than the flash you see on store shelves making it more expensive and harder to expand given the same difficulties as mentioned above. Wiki has a picture of the (SOC) and shows a diagram of how small it is in relation to the chip and why it is so expensive to double the size and with the failure rates of flash at the upper ends having your cell phone wiped clean every couple months is not really and option for most cell phone users. This has nothing to do with a conspiracy by the big phone companies to defraud you some how. Its a technical matter that it is hard to expand flash memory economically and with any amount of reliability. Many people are talking about the end to flash memory and how it will have to be replaced by a different technology soon.

Haloruler64 84 pts

 jarrod78910 Flash memory isn't integrated into the SoC though... on phones it's simply soldered onto the mainboard, separate from the SoC.

aelfwyne 9 pts

Easy enough.

 

Carriers. Why would they sell a model that could hold your entire music collection? Instead, sell a model where you are forced to use cloud music services. While the carrier may not provide that service, they do profit by the following upgrade in your data plan that's required from constant streaming. No space on your phone, so you start streaming, goodbye 2GB quota, hello 10GB quota! And hello overage fees if you're on one of the carriers that hates their customers!

 

So.... as long as carriers have insanely expensive overage charges and low caps/throttles, you can expect to never see large amount of storage on a mobile phone.

Conan_Kudo 5 pts

The disasters in Japan last year completely decimated flash memory. The floodings in Thailand decimated hard disk drives. The result is that costs have actually gone way up because of shortages.

Haloruler64 84 pts

 Conan_Kudo It started way before either of those disasters unfortunately. 

Conan_Kudo 5 pts

 Haloruler64  That is true, but certain advances in memory production facilities in Japan were supposed to launch in late 2011 to make higher capacity flash memory cheaper. Unfortunately a large number of factories that made flash memory chips were waterlogged, destroyed, or irradiated, so it never happened. However, a few escaped that fate and that's why we've got 32GB flash memory on the Galaxy Nexus.

OrlandoVergara 5 pts

"That’s if I forego photos and music completely."I think you mean Forget, don't know English is not my primary languaje :pI would love to see a device with standard 32 gb of internal storage with a microSD card slot of 64, and tablets with at least 2 microSD card slots that support 64 gb each. :PSorry for my bad English, like i said before it's not my primary languaje 

Haloruler64 84 pts

 OrlandoVergara I meant forego, that's the proper word to use.And yes, tablets should have two SD slots, for sure.

nicksk888 6 pts

Maybe the Thailand floodings are partially to blame? I know they made a majority of Hard drives there, but I'd assume they built flash memory there as well?